Friday, September 7, 2007

A logic explanation for the Israeli and American silence

The Israelis did not explain what had happened and what they did from violation to the Syrian skies after their little adventure yesterday , not only them but also the Americans

Ehud Olmert ignored the questions about the incident just like the rest of the Israeli officials with no confirmation nor denial , just silence

The Americans in the white house did not comment about the incident , in fact the spokesperson of the White house did not refer to the incident from near or far despite its importance despite its danger

The big surprise for me is the huge silence of the Arab countries especially Egypt , no immediate respond strangely

Anyhow I believe the Israeli silence goes to the reason why they infiltrated the Syrian skies in the first place and what happened there

From few weeks ago Russia announced that it had sold an advanced air defense system to Syria at the same time Israel objected and attacked Russia for such move

Then yesterday the Israeli Air forces sent couple of air jets, may be two to infiltrate the Syrian skies and the same new advanced air defense system stood against these Jets and forced them to leave rapidly . The Syrians opened the fires of that air defense system on these jets that one of them throw down its ammunition tank to head back to Israel or according to the Syrian version the Syrian-Iraqi borders

I think the Israelis wanted to test  the new defense system and at the same time they wanted to provoke the Syrians , you know two birds with stone policy ,yet the plan did not go as expected as the new defense system seems to be working very good ,in fact more than the Israelis expected. I do not know but what had happened the day before but I think may be one of the Israeli jets was hit by the Syrian fires

I am not an expert in air forces but when the air fighter drops its ammunition tanks it means that the pilot is getting rid from overload in the jet to make much more faster to get away and return back to the base or where ever it is safe from his and for his jet

So here is the scenario as I imagine it one of the jets was hit ,they could not return back from where they came ,they had to go in to the Iraqi skies which are now under the control of their American allies

in other words it was a fiasco that could have sparkled a war in the middle east ,yesterday the oil price went up partially because of this news

The Israelis are silent because they can not announce that one of their jets were hit during that mission and that Syrian air defenses stood against them

First of all this is the last thing the Israeli people need to hear about their air forces , another small fiasco added to this huge fiasco in June 2006 , the Israeli people will think and know that it was the fault of their government which was provoking the Syrians for the last couple of months for no freaking reason

Second of all Israel does not want to appear loser in this small incident , yes it is not a big battle nor it is the last chapter but this can bring more confidence to the Arabs ,the Israeli war machine supremacy is a legacy they are trying to retain even after the fiasco of June 2006 , this will bring more confidence to the Arabs and especially the Syrian people who some of them believe that their army is not that powerful to stand against the Israeli army

The Americans are silent because they can't say that they opened the Iraqi skies to the IAF jets , this is the last thing they need in Iraq to create more hatred towards them , sorry not Iraq but the whole Arab world , it will enforce the conspiracy theories that Israel is involved in Iraq . They can not say this directly ,it made them in a very bad situation with their allies in the region especially Saudi Arabia , yes KSA is not having the best relations with Syria now but there are certain basis it will not give up

Also in front of the international community both countries are guilty because this is a violation for another country sovereignty and yes Syria has the right to respond in the way  it wants , this is what the international laws say and that's why both countries are acting as if nothing had happened

There are no drums war in the middle east any time soon ,ladies and gentle men , except if Israel is ruled by bunch of idiots , Bush got only one year and he is in trouble in Iraq and will not jeopardize a war in Syria on the borders of Iraq

In the Previous times , Syria was weak , it had a weak air defense system now she is strong ,it is not enough to have the international law in to your side in this world !!

I wonder if we have an advance air defense system like the one the Syrian have , I will not put my bet on the American air defense system.

13 comments:

  1. ear ZEINOBIA,

    SYRIA HAS RECENTLY PURCHSED STATE OF THE ART Russin air defence systems. However, factors that control the effectivenesss of air defence network are numerous, those include:

    Electronic warfare capabilties, in terms of radars and Jamming

    Automation and control networks, in order to integrate all elements of air defence, artillery,missiles, radars.......etc into one system, for example, Iraqi air defences were suppressed in 1990 because they were not automated.

    Experience and perconnel training


    In all the above aspects Egypt excels.Moreover, Egypt has got a relative advantage that is not found in any air defence force in the entire world, as Egypt integrates Russian, American, French, Chinese and Egyptian radars and air defence equipment into on system; this in turn makes the process of suppressing Egyptian defences and Jamming our radars and interceptors impossible.

    We are very cautious because Israelians are masters in electronic warfare and Jamming the old soviet systems like Sam 6 and Sam3. The network is is wired using fibre optic cables bunkered under the ground. Furthermore, Egyptian perconnel possess indeginouis capablities to modify and change the specifications of imported equipment. The Egyptian air deence academy in Alexandria is one of the best in the world.

    Furthermore, Egypt indigenously produces its missiles and anti air artillery, and some radars.

    The Egyptian military industries are second only to Israel in the middle east, they are even better than the Turkish one

    Syrians on the other hand are highly motivated, they have considerable experience, their staff are Russian trained.

    However, their main problem is organizational. The Syrian army is less professional and politicians interfere with technical issues. That is mainly because of the fact that levantine Arabs are politicised by nature, unlike Egyptians, which leads to less profciency

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  2. the skies are opened for all explanations and all of it is logical.

    Good explanation that you put and it's really logic

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  3. Dear Amr I do not know how this can be related to what I am saying in this post , I am not comparing the Egyptian army with the Syrian army
    this is not our isse here , this silly comparison , Egyptian Drama Vs. Syrian Drama , Egypt Vs. Syria silly children game , I am here talking about some incident
    by the way do not underestimate the Syrian army , in 1948 the Syrians were too close to Tel Aviv but thanks to the Iraqi army and the orders it had they did not reach to Tel Aviv
    I do not know if you know that after 30 years of Baath Rule in Syria there are no longer officiers with political preferences that was in the past
    I am quite aware with the Politics and its rule in the Syrian army , still this does not make them less or more powerful than any army in the region

    @anonymous, thanks for your comment

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  4. Dear Zeinobia

    you misunderstood what I am wrting. I was answering yourt question about the the equipment of the Egyptian army. The power of Syria is a power for Egypt. A comparison betwen the two countries is self-destructive and silly. Our enemies have been always one for thousands of years

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  5. Ah ,I got it , you mean my last comment , well look I do not have much information about the arms and systems of Egyptian army but this can be considered as an objection for the total dpendane of the American arms in the last 25 years

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  6. I believe this is a very optimistic view of the incident, though I really wish it's correct.
    I believe these jets did hit their target in Syria. The reason for the all this mystery from the Israel’s side is to prevent a Syrian escalation due to a national embarrassment.
    What really strikes me is the ease of entrance to the Syrian air space by the Israelis. We all remember the other incident also in Syria where the planes were only spotted while exiting the Syrian air space - after turning of their jamming equipment. What causes me think this explanation is more logical is the sophistication of deploying and operating a new air defense system in terms of training and expertise. Also given the fact that only four operational out of 40 systems were delivered if I’m not mistaken. And I believe it's too soon that these systems are currently fully operational due to the above factors. Anyway I really hope I’m mistaken
    Cheers all
    alaa.

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  7. Alaa,I did not know the information about the numbers of systems delived except when you told me here , of course as you mentioned they won't be fully operational
    still I do not understand the Israeli silence , first they denied and Olmert said that he did not know about and now they come with the States with a fair tale of the axis of evil union Syria is making nukes underground and North Korea is the conspiracy , a big film they both released after two or one week from the incident , this what i called so interesting
    I do not know whether they waited to find a good story to pesrve their diginty or what !!?? or to find a good gate to enter Syria from , another WMD game!!

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  8. Hi Zeinobia,
    The Israelis have always adopted this mystery theory
    Up till now they still adopt it for their nuclear programs
    This silence regarding the attack is I believe a way to absorb the Syrian
    Anger from the raid as both countries defiantly do not want to go to an open war
    At least at this time.
    As for the stories the Americans came with, There are 2 stories actually the first is to attack a nuclear facility used to arm scud missiles with “nuclear component”! provided by north Korea
    The second story is that Israel wanted to test the Syrian air defense system after the new installations and at the same time send a clear message to the Iranians on behalf of the US that Iran can be targeted as simple as Syria was (since both countries have very similar air defense systems). These are the 2 stories that I read about from the American side.
    I see the Israeli silence as a way to relief some of the pressure on the Syrian government posted by its own people by letting the Syrian side of the story un commented What I don’t understand is the words the Syrian air defense system opened heavy fire causing the plans to escape or even caused damage to one of the planes
    How come the IAF planes managed to travel that deep into the Syrian territory without being shot down if the Syrians had locked on them by radar. Also given the fact that not a single Syrian air craft was put to the air during that time.
    This incident I believe was carried on the same way the last one was made, huge jamming on the radars causing radar blindness – not knowing what’s happening and who is who- and suddenly the IAF plans were breaking the sound barriers over the presidential palace!!! And only during the plans flight back home turning off the radar jamming devices when the Syrian realized what happened.
    BTW this time the jamming was noticed by some Lebanese –interruption of the TV and radio broadcast during the time of the raid-
    cheers
    alaa

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  9. Alaa, I believe the second story is the true
    about the IAF and radars ,well we must put in our mind one important fact , the Syrian Air forces for a long time was not active nor as efficient as the IAF
    whether from the technology or from training , Israel get yearly the state of Art equipments from all round the world
    their fighters flying hours are the highest in the world
    the question is not how they did , more than why the Syrians did not do anything since the first time and it is easy that the Syrian do not want to go to a war because they know they may lose due to the unequal powers
    still I believe the Syrians became much more bolders when the Russians made their military bases in Syria , strangely no body speaks about this , they all are focusing on Iran and forget the Russian huge support which is more important than Iran

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  10. Zeinobia
    The Strength of the IAf is not in the state of the arts planes that they purchase from the US. Actually they purchase the same planes that we do. Most of these does not contain fire control systems ! nor highly advanced radars and equipment . yet their actual strength
    Is in the advance complementary defense industry they have which is so advanced that they even export many of these to the US and lot’s of the EU countries.
    In the same time the IAF pilots experience very high training programs allowing them to claim to be the best in the world in terms of training and actually according to the publications on the joint trainings they had they achieved very high results.
    Too bad that we don’t have such advanced industries which are crucial not only for the military but for the economy as well.
    But we need to understand that they are not invesibile at all. Actually at the beginning of the 73 war the whole IAF were subsided from the war almost completely due to the excellent Egyptian and syrian brains in establishing a very well planned air defense network. Also in the last war against lebenon it became obvious that despite the superiority the IAF had it didn’t prevent their humiliating defeat by hizballah which managed to hide and bunker it’s troops and beat the hell out of the Israely ground forces.
    Simply by Smart planning. And this actually is what Syria understood from the Lebanese war. though it’s much easier to hide a bunch of thousands of militia troops than to hide a complete army and military establishments on one of the largest armies in the middle east. Despite that Syria is actually moving towards narrowing the gap between the 2 in respect of strengthing the air defense systems (these Russian systems actually the Russians claim that they are immune to all sorts of jamming also these systems are highly mobile allowing for a large deal of flexibility and ability to protect moving ground forces)
    In the same time Syria is in a deal of buying the latest highly advanced migs from the Russians which would help in balancing a little the gap in the air force.
    Yet the major disadvantage is the poor communication and operational effectiveness and mobility. But let’s not forget that Israel cannot sustain a long time of war due to it’s huge implications on Israel ‘s economy u know how they operate their reserves and how they don’t rely on a huge army rather on the ability to move the whole population to war.
    Which would mean the ability of a large scale attack to penetrate their defenses . yet the key is the ability to absorb their counter attacks
    So their might be some bright light in case of careful planning
    Cheers
    alaa

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  11. @Alaa , first let me express my admiration to your military information and analysis

    Second I agree on what you said
    still in this incident I still do not understand the confusion in Israel , the Defense MInister declared the operation , yet the prime minister denied any previous knowledge of the operation , I do not understand this at all,is it some game made to embrass Olmert putting him in a corner or what !!??

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  12. Thanks Zeinobia, I realy appreciate your comments.

    for the conflict in the statments that you referred to. actualy this is a key part of the mystery
    theory they need to make sure that
    there are 2 different opposite sides of the story the higher one is the denial so as to allow for Syria to take her pick from the 2 stories and at the same time sends a message to its population to get the message and figure out or imagine the rest of the truth on their own. that's why olmert's popularty have higly increased since declaring the raid. there will also be some leaks from here and there. leaks like "Netn" "Yahoo" ! declaration.
    for which the reason is that this netn yahoo noticed the high increase in Olmert's popularity -his political rival- and wanted a part of the cake even on irael's expense ! so he decalred that he agreed on and supported the raid !! typical "bany sohyoun"

    cheers
    alaa

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  13. well for sure Biby wants Olmert place so much
    still I do not this Nuke stupid tale they are promoting with the States as if the people of the world were idiots
    already according to the international laws it is still unacceptable and considered infiltration of the Syrian Sovereignty what they were doing there !!

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